UP TO YOU: The crime paradox

New Yorkers are afraid. Can the next mayor make them feel defended?

Tracking crime in the United States is an inexact science. City, state, and federal agencies don’t collect the same data, and nobody agrees on what “crime” is. But the latest data suggests that after a pandemic uptick, national rates of violent and property crime — the type that worries most people — are at their lowest since the early 1990s. But Americans tend to believe crime is rising, and that persistent fear of crime — whether it is driven by news coverage, social media, proximity to visible episodes of violence in cities, or just the overall experience of living in a country where people feel undefended economically and politically — influences their choices in elections.

This week, journalist and author Nate Schweber looks at how perceptions of crime are shaping the race to become the next mayor of New York City — by the numbers, the safest big city in America, but a place where people continue to feel unsafe.

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By Nate Schweber

Overall crime in New York City was down in 2024, and data shows the city has had fewer shootings so far in 2025 than any year's beginning since 1994. But in 2024 rapes rose to their highest level since 2020, and felony assaults climbed to their highest level in around a quarter-century. Concerningly, the motivation for the majority of subway violence has changed from robbery to animosity. And the last few years have seen horrific violence on the subway: a mass shooting in 2022, 26 people pushed onto the tracks in 2024, and a woman immolated days before year’s end. Just last Friday, a man was stabbed to death during the morning rush hour.

To his constituents, Mayor Eric Adams, boasting that numbers prove that New York is the safest big city in America, sounds a little like the mayor in Jaws, boasting about all the swimmers who weren’t eaten by a shark.

So, how deep does the problem run, below the visible dorsal fin?

Deep enough that, as Riders Alliance spokesman Danny Pearlstein notes, not one candidate is talking about reducing police numbers in subways. All of the high-profile Democratic candidates competing in the June 24 primary are making crime-fighting proposals, ranging from more policing to more social services.

“It’s indicative that nobody’s proposing shrinking or defunding the police — that’s a dead issue,” said Pearlstein, whose group advocates for better transit. “So the expectation is, just as there are thousands of police officers on the subway, the same will be true a year from today.”